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Source: https://www.jns.org/opinion/aviram-bellaishe/the-opportunity-within-a-coerced-deal
The Ceasefire Now Pressed upon Israel in Lebanon Amounts to the Reconstitution of Hizbullah
(JNS) Aviram Bellaishe - A ceasefire that does not deal with Hizbullah does not halt the next war; it lets Iran rebuild the tool meant to wage it. In the West, war is meant to produce a diplomatic achievement; the agreement is the endpoint. For Iran, one can lose militarily and still win at the table; an agreement is time to regroup for the next war. Just as Iran will use any pause to rebuild its military and nuclear infrastructure, so, too, the ceasefire now pressed upon Israel in Lebanon amounts to the reconstitution of Hizbullah for the coming campaign. In recent months, the Lebanese government began a difficult move against Hizbullah's weapons. The U.S.-Iran agreement endangers this momentum. Hizbullah will rebuild its power on the claim that its Iranian patron is still standing, still reaching an agreement with the U.S., still forcing Lebanon back into the regional equation in a way that shields Hizbullah. This is an Iranian victory on Lebanese soil. The territory Hizbullah lost to Israel must pass to the Lebanese army, not return to Hizbullah. Israel will no longer allow Hizbullah to entrench on its border. The writer, vice president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, served in senior government positions for 27 years.