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Source: https://www.thefp.com/p/trump-got-us-here-out-of-strength
With the Iran MoU, the U.S. Is Buying Time to Prepare for the Future
(Free Press) Michael Doran - At first glance, the memorandum of understanding (MoU) looks like a wish list drafted in Tehran. It grants Iran consultations with Oman on regulating traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and even a $300 billion reconstruction fund to help rebuild and modernize Iran. In return, the U.S. receives a vague and completely dishonest commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon. However, let's rewind to Feb. 4, 2025, when Trump announced that the U.S. intended to turn Gaza into "the Riviera of the Middle East." 16 months later, no developer has broken ground on a beachfront resort in Gaza City. 16 months from now, there will be no $300 billion pouring into Iran. No consortium of international investors will ever commit that much money to Iran's jihadist regime. The MoU's primary goals are to halt the fighting and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Convincing the Iranians to reopen the strait required concessions. With midterm elections looming, the political math was unforgiving. Trump calculated that retreat, however inelegant, was preferable. His critics see this move as surrender, offering Iran a pathway to rebuild its nuclear program, proxy network, and ballistic missile arsenal, while demanding nothing in return. This analysis is overwrought. First of all, Trump revitalized the credibility of the American military threat. During his second term, Trump has ordered three major military operations against Iran: against the Houthis, and against Iranian nuclear and military sites. Each time, the operation ended abruptly. But the cumulative effect has degraded Iranian power severely and quickly. Trump's tactical retreat is real, but so are the war's achievements. The president's critics want us to believe that the MoU marks a definitive and permanent surrender, leaving Iran free to behave as it pleases. A more sober assessment would conclude that Trump is buying time. If Iran seeks to revitalize its nuclear program and protect it with a shield of ballistic missiles, Trump's record suggests that he will strike again. One area where Trump paid a higher price than necessary is Lebanon and the linking of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to Israeli operations against Hizbullah. By accepting that linkage, Trump restored a source of Iranian leverage that battlefield successes had largely eliminated. No Israeli government can absorb Hizbullah attacks while refraining from military action. The writer is Director of the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute in Washington.