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Source: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iran-didnt-win-war
Iran Didn't Win the War
(Foreign Affairs) James F. Jeffrey - When viewed from a broader perspective, the outcome of the war with Iran looks different. The almost three-year-long regional conflict that started with Hamas's attack on Israel in October 2023 has put the U.S. and its partners in a far stronger position in the Middle East and left Iran much weaker. Iran's proxy network of militant groups is largely in ruins; Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, one of Iran's key partners, is gone; Tehran has been mostly ignored by its supposed allies in Beijing and Moscow; and Iran's conventional forces, and much of its defense and nuclear industrial base, have been decimated. Iran's sole victory has come from its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and cause economic damage across the world. But closing the strait also harms Iran itself, and the impact of a closure is likely to weaken over time as countries seek alternative suppliers, substitutes for oil, and new shipping routes to avoid the strait. Iran's actions after the 12-day war in 2025 reinforced the perception that it was insistent on maintaining its regional dominance. In January, the Iranian regime brutally suppressed a nationwide popular uprising. The Islamic regime thus showed it was not changing. The Trump administration and Israel decided that it was better to attack while Iran was still relatively weak from the 12-day war and the popular uprising than to wait until it had rebuilt missile stocks. The U.S., Israel, and Gulf Arab partners intercepted the vast majority of Iran's missiles and drones. Those that got through did little damage to Israeli targets and only moderate damage to U.S. bases in the region and Gulf states' infrastructure. The writer, a former U.S. Special Representative for Syria Engagement and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, is a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.