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Iran's Oil Money Is Coming Back But Its Main Street Will Have to Wait
(Wall Street Journal) Georgi Kantchev - While the U.S.-Iran deal to free up shipping in the Strait of Hormuz promises a quick cash injection for the Tehran regime, for ordinary Iranians, economic relief is likely to take much longer. Analysts estimate that Iran could gain $10 billion in the next two months from oil sales alone. Iran's balance sheet may improve within weeks, but its battered economy will likely take months or longer to feel the effect. "In the short term this is a windfall, but it isn't enough to kick-start the broader economy," said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst focusing on Iran at Eurasia Group. "Tremendous damage has been done to industries and to infrastructure in major cities and the government needs to create an impression that peace will last, that the bombing won't come back." A technician in Isfahan province said he expects the deal to have little effect on ordinary people's lives, and that the government will just channel any new cash flows to itself. "We fear the ceasefire, an agreement and the survival of the regime more than we fear war itself," he said.