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Source: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/israel-lebanon-agreement-2026/
Weaknesses of the Framework Agreement between Lebanon and Israel
(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Lt.-Col. (ret.) Orna Mizrahi - The path to the implementation of the framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon appears long and fraught with obstacles, and there is no certainty that it can be successfully implemented. Hizbullah refuses to accept the terms or relinquish its weapons, autonomous status, and ties to Iran. It may, as in the past, attempt to target Lebanese leaders involved in negotiations with Israel. Although Hizbullah is currently weaker than before, it still retains the capacity to disrupt the implementation process, including continued military activity against IDF forces operating in Lebanon. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) remain at a disadvantage vis-a-vis Hizbullah, even in its current weakened state. Past experience has demonstrated that the Lebanese army lacks both the will and the capability to confront Hizbullah. To date, it has avoided violent clashes with Hizbullah and has at times even cooperated with it. In order to meet the demands placed upon it by the agreement, comprehensive reforms, significant strengthening, and a shift in its strategic posture vis-a-vis Hizbullah will be required. The agreement could also face potential disruption by Iran, which has already demonstrated its willingness to risk the collapse of the ceasefire in order to preserve its position in Lebanon and ensure Hizbullah's survival. For Israel, the agreement reflects recognition of the State of Israel by the Lebanese government and points to the possibility of a future transformation in bilateral relations with Lebanon. It also partly offsets the negative implications of the Memorandum of Understanding signed between Iran and the U.S., which acknowledged Iranian involvement in Lebanon. The framework also renders unnecessary the involvement of the states that were supposed to oversee the ceasefire alongside the U.S. - Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar. The writer, a senior researcher at INSS, served for 26 years in the IDF and 12 years in Israel's National Security Council.