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Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/09/world/middleeast/iran-us-war-strait-of-hormuz.html
Tanker Attacks Risk Overplaying Iran's Hand and Reigniting a War
(New York Times) Neil MacFarquhar - Iran, fearing that its hold over the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes was gradually slipping away, risked overplaying its hand by again firing on oil tankers and potentially rekindling a major war with the U.S., analysts said. The basic bargain in the Memorandum of Understanding was that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping in exchange for badly needed economic relief. Vali Nasr, a veteran Iran analyst and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said, "The view from Tehran is that the U.S. is engaged in a concerted effort to take control of the Strait out of Iran's hands, to weaken its position in Lebanon, and to regain its own strength in order to put even more pressure on Iran." The perception by Iran that it had bested the U.S. and Israel in the war earlier this year likely helped lead to the renewed confrontation, analysts said. The message from Iran was that it intended to enforce a newfound chokehold over the strait. The U.S., which had lifted oil sanctions against Iran that had been in place for decades, immediately reimposed them. "They risk misreading President Trump, which they have done over and over again," said Joel Rayburn, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former special envoy for Syria during the first Trump administration. Iran has a long habit of taking provocative actions like firing on the tankers and then acting as the aggrieved party, he said. "They are overplaying their hand."