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Source: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-july-9-2026/
Iran Using Gulf Attacks to Force Control over Strait of Hormuz Shipping
(Institute for the Study of War) Iran is threatening the resumption of large-scale conflict by striking civilian vessels and the Gulf states to try to achieve permanent control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's attacks illustrate that Iran views control over the strait as its primary strategic deterrent and that Iran is unlikely to abandon its efforts to control the strait in response to opposition from the Gulf states. Recent U.S. strikes have had no visible effect on Iran's ability to threaten shipping. Iran likely calculates that it can use control of the strait as economic leverage to shape U.S. decision-making and deter further U.S. military action. The Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute continue to assess that any arrangement that recognizes Iranian control over the strait would preserve Iran's ability to close the strait at will to advance its strategic objectives.