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Source: https://www.jns.org/opinion/eyal-dror/why-lebanon-can-have-a-framework-agreement-and-syria-cannot
Why Israel Must Be Cautious about Syria
(JNS) Lt.-Col. (res.) Eyal Dror - Lebanon and Syria both pose serious security challenges to Israel, but the nature of those challenges is fundamentally different. In Lebanon, the main problem is clear: Hizbullah. In Syria, the challenge is broader, more unstable and still unresolved. In Lebanon, Israel knows what it is dealing with. The question is how to push the Hizbullah threat back from the border and ensure that it stays there. Syria is a different story. It is a country that has been shattered by years of civil war, institutional collapse, Iranian entrenchment, Russian influence, militia activity, jihadist groups and deep internal mistrust. It remains to be seen whether the new leadership can actually control southern Syria. A paper arrangement is not enough if the south remains vulnerable to militias, extremists, local strongmen or outside powers. As someone who commanded "Operation Good Neighbor" on the Syrian border for years, I learned that southern Syria is villages, clans, minorities, fears, grievances and fragile local structures. In such an environment, a security vacuum can quickly become a strategic threat. Israel must therefore be careful not to confuse hopeful rhetoric with operational reality. That is why the right Israeli approach toward Syria at this stage is a gradual security arrangement, built step by step and verified on the ground. The first need is a coordination mechanism that reduces the risk of misunderstandings and military friction. The next need is a practical commitment to prevent Iranian forces, proxy militias and jihadist groups from entrenching themselves in southern Syria. If the man in charge in Syria emerged from the world of jihad, the real test for Israel is behavior. Can he keep jihadist groups out of the south? Can he prevent Iranian entrenchment? Can he protect minorities? Can he stop the border from becoming a launchpad for future violence? In Syria, the right policy is caution, phased coordination, and strict verification. For Israel, caution is not hesitation. It is strategy. The writer, who lives with his family in Kibbutz Dafna on Israel's northern border, previously founded and commanded "Operation Good Neighbor" on the Israeli-Syrian border - Israel's secret humanitarian mission to rescue Syrian civilians during the civil war.