|
Trending Topics
|
Source: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-is-a-hedgehog-trump-is-a-fox-7f2cf112
Don't Be So Sure that Tehran Is Winning
(Wall Street Journal) Walter Russell Mead - Uncertainty and drama have been part of Mr. Trump's deal-making since the 1970s. In his view, misdirection is key to the art of the deal. On top of that, Mr. Trump hopes to achieve ambitious objectives with limited costs, leading him to repeated bluffs, threats and tactical retreats as he maneuvers toward his goals. Iranian diplomacy is equally opaque. From the 1979-81 hostage crisis to the present day, Iran's leaders befuddled successive American administrations by allowing supposed "moderates" to propose agreements that "hard-liners" at home veto at will. In situations like this, one needs to pay less attention to speeches and short-term moves, and look at the facts shaping the antagonists' options. The Iranian regime, at least for now, has murdered its way to domestic security. Quite possibly no amount of economic suffering or isolation can overthrow the regime while its goons and thugs stand fast. Additionally, Iran has demonstrated its ability to hold the neighborhood hostage, restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and hitting energy infrastructure and American bases across the region. Given all this, many Iranians believe they are winning the war. But Iran has problems too. Assets and relationships cultivated over decades in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria have been torched, and the longer the conflict lasts, the weaker Iran's regional networks are likely to become. And Iran can't indefinitely function as a society without economic relief. The writer, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, is Professor of Strategy and Statecraft at the University of Florida.