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Understanding Why Iran Trashed the Ceasefire Deal Is Essential to Figuring Out How to Handle the Regime
(Washington Post) Amb. Matthew Gould - In early July, the Iranian regime trashed the ceasefire deal it had reached with the U.S. by attacking three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Having negotiated an extraordinary package - ending sanctions, unfreezing assets, and establishing a $300 billion reparation fund - Iran made the seemingly nonsensical decision to pick a fight instead. Understanding why it did this is essential to figuring out how to handle the regime. When I was stationed in Iran for the British Foreign Service 20 years ago, I developed rules to explain the actions of the regime. Iranian leaders are focused single-mindedly on preserving their grip on power. They know that the overwhelming majority of Iranians despise them and that the people will not be forgiving if the regime is finally removed. Determination to stay in power guides the regime's actions. In that sense, Iranian leaders are rational - but that does not mean they are moderate. Iran's missile attacks on its neighbors was an expression of the regime's doctrine of building leverage by continuing to escalate. The writer is a former British ambassador to Israel and former deputy ambassador to Iran.