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Source: https://unherd.com/2026/07/trump-can-still-win-iran-war/
Trump Can Still Win the Iran War
(Unherd) Edward Luttwak - The Revolutionary Guards, who now run Tehran very much as the SS did once Hitler died, have no plan other than to keep fighting, and a readiness to hang anyone who disagrees. This latest bout of warfare started with June's botched "Memorandum of Understanding," which was so loosely worded that it could be read as surrendering the Persian Gulf to Iran - as well as its direct opposite. It was also inevitable that the surviving Revolutionary Guard officers who now rule Iran would go for the maximum; all along they have boasted about their glorious victories, so they were hardly going to stand down and let America's Arab and Sunni friends ship out their oil, liquefied natural gas, and fertilizers undisturbed. So they made an unprecedented and plainly illegal claim of sovereignty over the whole Gulf, together with a demand for transit fees. When Iran started attacking ships to assert its claim, the Trump administration imposed a total embargo on the Islamic Republic's oil exports. Because Iran's usable foreign exchange reserves are very small, the oil export embargo had an immediate impact. It hampered Iran's ability to import rocket fuel, drone motors and other such urgent necessities from China. It also slowed its money transfers to Shi'a allies in Iraq, to Hizbullah in Lebanon, and to Yemen's Houthi militia. Meanwhile, in Iran the stop to oil exports has collapsed the rial. It now costs 1,900,000 rials to purchase one U.S. dollar in Tehran; a year ago it was 590,000 rials. The regime's paid inspirational orators spell out their victory plan: If the war is pursued vigorously enough, the Twelfth Imam (the Mahdi), who has remained hidden since the year 874, will return as the redeemer, to install Shi'a Islam as the world's only religion. They insist that Iran is on a path to certain victory. In the latest round of fighting, Iranian missiles and drones have targeted Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria and the UAE, but not Israel. The Revolutionary Guards could easily draw Israel in by launching missiles towards it, or ordering its Houthi auxiliaries to do so. They have chosen not to. The reason is no mystery. The bombing capacity of the U.S. is far greater, but only the Israelis have demonstrated a consistent ability to find and kill Iran's top leaders - and a willingness to do so. In Washington's foreign affairs and intelligence bureaucracies, by contrast, there is a dogmatic opposition to attacks against political leaders. But when a leadership is willing to impose unlimited sacrifices on its own population, it is no use inflicting more hardship on that same population - and the leaders are the only valid targets. American strategy continues to target the country's economy and infrastructure rather than the regime itself. But destroying bridges would only raise the cost of war; removing the Revolutionary Guard leadership could end it. It would immediately comfort the desperate, oppressed population, and might sooner or later bring to power new leaders less eager to enjoy the luxuries of Islamic martyrdom. The writer is a contractual strategic consultant for the U.S. government.