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The U.S. Must Convince Tehran that Time Is Not on Its Side
(Forbes) Lt.-Gen. (ret.) David A. Deptula - As the U.S. settles into a recurring cycle of Iranian attacks followed by American airstrikes followed by short-lived peace talks, the burning question is how to bring the conflict to an end. Iran's leaders know they cannot defeat the U.S. in a conventional military contest. But they are betting they don't need to. Instead, their objective is to simply endure. The regime's immediate objective is to survive the next several months before the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections, while imposing costs and frustrating American diplomacy. The U.S. is measuring progress in targets destroyed and economic damage imposed. Iran is measuring progress in days survived. Bombarding the U.S. and allies with comparatively inexpensive weapons disrupts maritime traffic, pressures energy markets, strains regional air defenses, and creates continuing demands for U.S. military action. Only a small percentage of attacks need be successful to create economic anxiety and political pressure disproportionate to the weapons employed. Iran is betting that America will give up before the Iranian regime becomes desperate. The U.S. is right to accelerate development and deployment of lower-cost counter-drone systems, autonomous interceptors, high-powered microwave weapons, electronic warfare capabilities, and directed-energy systems to counter cheap drone and cruise missiles. The Army has rapidly deployed thousands of Merops counter-drone interceptors. While technology can improve the terms of the contest, it cannot determine the political objective or supply the patience required to achieve it. Iran's approach works not because its weapons are innovative, but because they are employed as part of a strategy designed to exploit American political impatience, defensive costs, and concerns about escalation. The appropriate response is therefore not simply a better interceptor, but rather a strategy that makes time work against Tehran. The U.S. must convince Tehran that waiting will make its position progressively worse. This requires persistent military pressure against the regime's ability to attack and regenerate. The U.S. should continue attacking the production, storage, command-and-control, and launch architecture supporting Iran's missile, drone, and maritime operations. Electrical-power infrastructure that directly supports those military capabilities constitutes a lawful military objective when targeted in accordance with the principles of distinction, proportionality, and feasible precautions, and provides a means of neutralizing them consistent with the law of armed conflict. To secure a durable victory, the U.S. must be prepared to play the long game. This does not mean accepting an endless war. It means establishing conditions under which Iran's choices are steadily reduced while America's are preserved. The writer is Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and a Senior Scholar at the U.S. Air Force Academy.