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Will Economic Pressure Inevitably Cause the Iranian Regime to Collapse?
(JNS) Dr. Harold Rhode - Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan recently concluded a defense agreement. All three are Sunni-ruled states with substantial non-Sunni populations, whose interests are routinely suppressed or kept strictly in check by their central governments. The pact's public focus on Israel aligns with a familiar regional playbook: using anti-Israel rhetoric as a unifying force to obscure internal divisions and project ideological legitimacy. However, a deeper look reveals that the primary driver behind this arrangement is not Israel, but rather a profound sense of regional vulnerability driven by Iran's aggressive expansionism and the perceived unreliability of the U.S. - that American commitments can no longer be relied upon for long-term security. Middle Eastern regimes watch Western powers enter regional conflicts with high-minded goals, only to withdraw when domestic political will fades. Iran has adeptly exploited this perception of Western weakness. Through its network of regional proxies, Tehran continually tests the limits of American power. By demonstrating that Western allies will not step in decisively to dismantle aggressive regimes, Tehran reinforces the perception that local powers must fend for themselves. Western analysts often assert that severe economic pressure and internal unrest will inevitably cause the Iranian regime to collapse from within. This perspective fundamentally misunderstands the mechanics of power in totalitarian Middle Eastern states. Authoritarian regimes do not govern by public consensus or economic performance; they preserve power through the unyielding application of force against internal opposition. When Western powers rely on economic sanctions while avoiding decisive action against regional disruptors, regional capitals take note. The signing of the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani defense agreement in Mecca is a direct outcome of this dynamic. The writer, a fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, served as an adviser on the Islamic world for the U.S. Department of Defense for 28 years.