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Source: https://jcfa.org/syrias-precarious-balancing-act-iran-turkey-and-the-israeli-calculus/
Syria's Precarious Balancing Act and the Israeli Calculus
(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah and Oded Ailam - Iran has warned Syria against taking action against Hizbullah, an option President Trump has raised on several occasions. Tehran made clear that it would strike more than a hundred targets inside Syria should Damascus act. Syria is continuing to pursue Iranian weapons shipments moving through Iraq and Syria to the Lebanese border, while actively working to disrupt Hizbullah's logistics network inside Syrian territory. This anti-Iranian, and by extension anti-Hizbullah, posture reflects a broader Syrian orientation. From its earliest days, the interim government in Damascus pursued a deliberate policy of distancing itself from Tehran. Syria deployed more than four divisions, including former fighters who had taken part in the campaign against Assad, along its border with Lebanon, targeting areas long used as smuggling routes. Damascus openly backed Lebanese state efforts to disarm Hizbullah while simultaneously conducting sweeps against Iranian-backed supply lines along the border. The unity Damascus projects to the outside world conceals a military structure still built from former factions, regional commanders, and armed groups whose loyalties were forged during the civil war and have not automatically transferred to a unified national command. The new Syrian army has yet to become a genuinely homogeneous national institution, as powerful field commanders retain their own fighters, local networks, and foreign patrons. Turkey has emerged as Damascus's primary security partner and is actively training and restructuring the Syrian national army. Turkish officials have openly discussed supplying the new army with weapons and military assistance. Preventing Syria from becoming a Turkish forward military position should be a central Israeli objective. Israel should insist that any emerging security arrangement with Damascus include clear limits on foreign military deployments, particularly Turkish combat aircraft, air-defense systems, and permanent bases that could constrain Israeli operational freedom. Washington has already pressed Israel to begin redeploying from Syrian territory. Israel should not surrender strategically valuable positions in exchange for promises alone. Any withdrawal should instead be tied to enforceable security arrangements: demilitarization, protection of the Druze population in southern Syria, prevention of hostile deployments, and credible guarantees regarding foreign military forces. Every Israeli concession should be matched by a concrete, verifiable Syrian commitment, not in exchange for declarations of moderation alone. Jacques Neriah, a special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center, was formerly Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence. Oded Ailam, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.