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Hizbullah Shifts to Guerrilla Warfare
(Alma Research and Education Center) Maj. (res.) Tal Beeri - With the stabilization of the IDF security zone in southern Lebanon, the Hizbullah threat within the zone may involve Hizbullah operatives "trapped" in the area; limited attempts to infiltrate cells; and large quantities of weapons, with concern that they may be booby-trapped. Hizbullah's force model on the eve of Oct. 7, 2023, no longer exists. The broad invasion plan to capture the Galilee has been neutralized; the defense plan, with an emphasis on the area south of the Litani, has collapsed; and the massive fire plan no longer exists. Hizbullah possesses fewer than 15,000 rockets. Hizbullah is adapting itself to a prolonged, low-intensity guerrilla war based on small cells, explosive charges, drones, and dispersed rocket fire intended to preserve continuity of combat. The ground threat has not disappeared, but instead of a large-scale invasion, Hizbullah may deploy cells numbering up to several dozen operatives to infiltrate the security zone in southern Lebanon or Israeli territory. The number of Hizbullah regular operatives is currently estimated at fewer than 40,000. To date, the IDF has eliminated 10,000 operatives. The writer is director of research at the Alma Center.