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Source: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-907688
Iran's Grip on Hormuz Is Eroding
(Jerusalem Post) Dr. Menahem Merhavy - According to recent U.S. estimates, 15 million barrels of Gulf oil are now leaving the region each day through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative export routes, representing a substantial recovery from the first months of the war. To hit a moving tanker, Iran first has to find and track it, which depends on a functioning surveillance network. U.S. CENTCOM reported repeated strikes on coastal radar and surveillance sites. The result was not the complete destruction of Iranian surveillance, but a serious degradation of it. The U.S. and Gulf exporters gradually reduced Iran's ability to detect, mine, and intimidate commercial shipping. What initially looked like an Iranian advantage became increasingly difficult to sustain. The Revolutionary Guards may continue to speak as if Tehran holds the upper hand, but the leverage Iran gained by disrupting Hormuz is clearly diminishing. Some commentary has transformed Iran's survival into evidence of victory. Iran had demonstrated striking resilience and, for a time, gained substantial leverage over the global economy. But resilience is not the same as dominance. Surviving an attack is not the same thing as winning a war. The writer is a senior researcher in Islamic and Middle Eastern studies at the Truman Institute of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.