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Source: https://www.meforum.org/mef-online/lessons-learned-from-the-last-time-israel-withdrew-from-lebanon
Lessons Learned from the Last Time Israel Withdrew from Lebanon
(Middle East Forum) Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser - In May 2000, when Israeli forces were about to withdraw from Lebanon after nearly two decades, I was serving as the intelligence officer of IDF Central Command, focusing on the threats relating to the Palestinians. At the time, I warned a reporter that the Lebanon pullout would lead to a violent Palestinian uprising. A few months later, the Second Intifada began, leading to the death and injury of thousands of people over the next five years among both Palestinians and Israelis. The pullout was interpreted by some leaders of the Palestinian Authority, in addition to terror groups and ordinary Palestinians alike, as evidence that Israel's perceived weakness could be used to force concessions to their demands. Similar repercussions could follow today if Israel withdraws from Lebanon. A June deal between Israel and Lebanon allows for the IDF to remain in the new security zone until Hizbullah is disarmed. This buffer zone, meant to protect Israel's north from direct fire or an invasion similar to Hamas's Oct. 7 attack, is critical for Israel's security. A full withdrawal, which Iran and Hizbullah are seeking, would grant the Iranian regime a diplomatic pathway to continue threatening Israel and undermining the sovereignty of the Lebanese government. The writer, former head of the research division in IDF Military Intelligence, is director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.