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Source: https://jiss.org.il/en/siboni-winner-jordans-fragile-stability-and-israels-eastern-front/
Jordan's Fragile Stability and Israel's Eastern Front
(Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security) Col. (res.) Prof. Gabi Siboni and Brig.-Gen. (res.) Erez Winner - In 1921, Britain divided the territory of the post-World War I British Mandate, granting Abdullah bin Hussein 78% of the Mandate's territory as the Emirate of Transjordan. In 1946, the emirate gained full independence and became the Hashemite Kingdom of Transjordan, later renamed Jordan. Israel's shared land border with Jordan is its longest - 309 km. The 1994 peace treaty has preserved relative stability for more than three decades, and the two countries maintain close security cooperation, including intelligence sharing. Israel aids Jordan in water and energy. The regime's traditional power base lies among loyal Bedouin tribes, while the majority of the population identifies as Palestinian. While the Bedouins regard Jordan as their homeland, a substantial part of the Palestinian public views it as a temporary way station or a platform for the struggle against Israel. Jordan also faces religious radicalization influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood and jihadist elements. Iran and its proxies are increasingly seeking to penetrate Jordan. Tehran sees the kingdom as a vulnerable link through which it can increase pressure on Israel from the east. The Hashemite regime helped block Iranian attacks on Israel by intercepting aircraft that entered Jordanian airspace. The threat to American bases and forces in Jordan is particularly significant. The Israel-Jordan border is exceptionally difficult to defend. For years, the IDF's border doctrine rested on close cooperation with the Jordanian military. The gravest danger is a scenario where armed terrorists suddenly storm the border at several points at once, or vehicles carrying machine guns and antitank weapons cross open stretches of Israel's southern frontier. Security cooperation with Jordan remains important, but it cannot substitute for independent Israeli preparedness. At the same time, the stability of the Hashemite regime is a paramount Israeli security interest. Israel has begun building an improved barrier along the Jordanian border. Gabi Siboni was director of the military and strategic affairs program of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) from 2006-2020. Erez Winner served in key command roles in the IDF.