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Source: https://ideas.tikvah.org/mosaic/essays/how-turkey-is-forging-a-new-ring-of-fire-around-israel
How Turkey Is Forging a New Ring of Fire around Israel
(Mosaic) Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak - On Aug. 18, the Israel Air Force (IAF) struck the Abu al-Duhur air base in northwestern Syria to prevent the deployment of Turkish air-defense systems on Syrian territory that could detect future Israeli airstrikes against Iran, allowing Tehran to be alerted to intercept the Israeli aircraft. The IAF was careful to conduct the strike before Turkish forces could establish a presence at the base and only acted after its message urging Syria not to allow Turkey to deploy its forces at the base went unheeded. Behind the strike on Abu al-Duhur is a profound shift in Israeli perceptions of Turkey, due to Turkey's increasingly antagonistic posture and its support for Hamas. Following the Turkish parliament's closed-door "Israel session" in Oct. 2024, reports indicated that Ankara had come to regard Israel as a "national threat" to Turkey. This shift in Ankara's threat perception prompted significant changes in Israel's own strategic thinking. In Jan. 2025, a commission headed by former National Security Council chief Jacob Nagel placed Turkey in the category of a "rival state with the potential to become an enemy state." On Oct. 7, 2023, the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement that avoided any explicit condemnation of Hamas. Ankara expressed concern over the "violence" and "tension" and strongly condemned the resulting "civilian casualties," without specifically referring to the Israeli civilians who had been targeted. The statement was issued while Israeli forces were still fighting to repel Hamas militants who had infiltrated Israeli territory. On Oct. 25, 2023, Turkish President Erdogan declared that Hamas was not a terrorist organization, but rather a group of "freedom fighters." Senior Turkish officials have since held frequent meetings with Hamas leaders, receiving them with a level of ceremony and public visibility normally granted official delegations from foreign countries. On Oct. 28, at the "Great Palestine Rally" in Istanbul, which pro-government media claimed drew 1.5 million participants, Erdogan appeared wearing a scarf bearing the Turkish and Palestine Liberation Organization flags and threatened to declare Israel a war criminal. A few weeks later, Erdogan suggested that Israel's military operations in Gaza could eventually reach Turkey's borders. He contended that Israeli policy was motivated by a religious belief that the biblical "promised land" encompasses parts of Turkey. Soon, Turkish media began echoing the president's demonization of the Jewish state. Israel was repeatedly described as a "terrorist state," "rogue state," and "virus." The writer, born and raised in Turkey, is a Turkey expert at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University.