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Source: https://warontherocks.com/iran-faces-severe-challenges-to-rebuild-missile-and-drone-production/
Iran Faces Severe Challenges to Rebuild Missile and Drone Production
(War On The Rocks) Jim Lamson - Israeli and U.S. attacks in 2024, 2025, and 2026 cumulatively caused severe damage to Iran's missile and drone industry as well as its larger defense research-industrial base. In the short term, Iran can conceivably assemble new ballistic missiles and drones from its prewar stockpiles of finished components. In the longer term, Iran will need to rebuild its severely damaged missile and drone industries. Israeli and U.S. attacks targeted both the production and supply chains. According to my assessment, the strikes targeted 40 ballistic missile industry sites, 20 cruise missile industry sites, and 20 drone industry sites - plus dozens of other defense research-industrial sites that support production. They focused on critical bottlenecks, including sites important to guidance and control, propulsion, warheads, airframes, launchers, and final assembly. Additionally, they struck industrial facilities producing strategic materials such as carbon fiber, steel, and aluminum. The strikes severely impacted production lines and also degraded Iran's ability to develop new and improved missiles and drones. The facilities, technologies, and processes involved in rebuilding Iran's industries and supply chains to produce ballistic missiles have a footprint that is harder to hide and to move underground. The manufacture and testing of liquid rocket engines and solid rocket motors provide an important example. Iran faces significant challenges to rebuilding. Iran will continue to face Western trade controls, sanctions, and interdictions designed to hinder procurement, alongside a reported Israeli covert campaign targeting its efforts to acquire technologies to restore damaged production lines. It may also confront a renewed Israeli "campaign between wars," including sabotage. Iran will also need to avoid foreign detection and identification of new facilities. Moreover, Iran's rebuilding efforts face the prospect of renewed Israeli or U.S. military attacks. The writer, a former CIA analyst, is a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.