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Source: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/victory-perception/
The Collapse of Hamas's Concept of Victory and the Erosion of the "Armed Resistance" Ethos
(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Prof. Kobi Michael - Recent Palestinian public opinion polls indicate a significant weakening of the "resistance is winning" narrative and reflect a profound conceptual shift. While the Oct. 7 attack was initially perceived by large segments of the Palestinian public as a historic achievement, over time, the destruction of Gaza, the heavy human toll, and Hamas's lack of any political or military horizon have forced this public to confront reality. One month after the outbreak of the war, 70% of Palestinians in Gaza, Judea and Samaria believed that Hamas would emerge victorious. By August 2026, that figure had fallen to 20%. In Dec. 2023, 63% believed the preferred strategy for statehood was Hamas's strategy of "armed struggle." In August 2026, that figure was 27%, the lowest rate recorded in the past four years. While Palestinians in Judea and Samaria generally maintained more hawkish positions (due to their distance from direct fighting), residents of Gaza, who experienced the destruction and humanitarian suffering firsthand, led the decline in support for Hamas and its actions. As the collapse of civilian infrastructure intensified and disillusionment with the resistance's ability to protect the population grew, Hamas's legitimacy as the vanguard of the national camp eroded severely. This shift moves the center of gravity from supporting Hamas's strategy of resistance toward a pragmatic approach that is acutely aware of its costs. At the same time, the ethos of armed resistance remains deeply embedded in the psychological foundations of Palestinian society, even as Palestinians confront the painful experience of its failure. There is very strong opposition to disarming Hamas; 50% believe that armed resistance has benefited the Palestinian national struggle. As of August 2026, the Palestinian public presents a picture of despair, but also of growing disillusionment with Hamas's hubris of victory. It understands the price of the destruction and expresses a greater willingness than in the past to pursue diplomatic channels and negotiations. The Palestinian public's recognition of the devastation brought upon it by Hamas serves as a foundation for the demand, shared by both Israel and Abbas, that Hamas must not be integrated under any circumstances into the new governance mechanisms being established in Gaza and that it must be fully disarmed, without compromise. The writer, a senior researcher at INSS, served as deputy director general and head of the Palestinian desk at Israel's Ministry for Strategic Affairs.