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DAILY ALERT
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Tuesday, April 1, 2025 | ||
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In-Depth Issues:
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said Sunday that the Islamic Republic rejected direct negotiations with the U.S. over its rapidly advancing nuclear program, offering Tehran's response to a letter that President Donald Trump sent to the country's supreme leader. The U.S. State Department, responding to Pezeshkian, said that "President Trump has been clear: the United States cannot allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. The president expressed his willingness to discuss a deal with Iran. If the Iranian regime does not want a deal, the president is clear, he will pursue other options, which will be very bad for Iran." (AP) Israel has built a growing network of outposts and fortifications in Syria and Lebanon, where groups hostile to Israel are present, in order to prevent another surprise attack across its borders like the Oct. 2023, Hamas-led attack that ignited the war in Gaza. The IDF has set up watchtowers, prefabricated housing modules, roads and communication infrastructure. Israeli forces have taken up positions in and beyond the demilitarized buffer zone in Syria. Israel also says its forces will remain in five places in southern Lebanon to defend Israeli communities from potential attack. Israel has long feared a surprise attack by Hizbullah from southern Lebanon. (New York Times) For decades, the Jenin refugee camp has been a central breeding ground and place of shelter for Palestinian militants. In recent weeks, Israeli bulldozers, looking for hidden explosives, have reduced much of the roads to sand and mud. The fighting and controlled demolitions by Israel have reduced many buildings to rubble. Only Israeli soldiers stationed in Jenin patrol its streets. In recent years, Israel's military has conducted hundreds of raids into the camp, and dozens in the past year alone. But Israel has never tried anything like what it is doing now: clearing the camps entirely. It is part of Israel's aggressive security posture following the attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, actively working inside enemy territory to pre-empt new threats. "When I started, there were a lot of operations for two or three days," said an Israeli military officer stationed in the Jenin area for the past year. Once each operation is over, the militants regroup and rearm. Now, the officer said, "We're trying to make sure they won't have time to recover." (Wall Street Journal) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Israel's Security Cabinet convened on Saturday night to discuss negotiations for a hostage deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "The Security Cabinet decided to intensify the already significant pressure to further weaken Hamas and create optimal conditions for the release of our hostages....Hamas will lay down its arms, its leaders will be allowed to leave, and we will ensure general security in Gaza while advancing Trump's plan for voluntary migration." (Ynet News) See also Israel Gives Hamas Last Chance to Free Hostages and Gain Truce before IDF Retakes Gaza - Lazar Berman On Monday, the Israel Defense Forces issued evacuation orders for the entire Rafah area in southern Gaza, including a large swath of land between Rafah and Khan Yunis where the IDF has so far not operated with ground forces. The army is initiating a multi-week operation that will see massive airstrikes on evacuated areas before IDF forces push further into Gaza, expanding the areas it currently holds and reducing the territory held by Hamas, the Times of Israel has learned. (Times of Israel) See also IDF Expands Rafah Offensive - Einav Halabi Most of Rafah is now empty of Palestinian residents. IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor has expanded to about a mile into the destroyed urban areas of the city. The IDF has been conducting raids in the large, central neighborhoods of Rafah, such as Shabora and Tel al-Sultan, for over a week with almost no resistance, as all terrorists have fled the area. Soldiers are primarily searching for and dismantling remaining enemy infrastructure. (Ynet News) IDF International Spokesperson Lt.-Col. Nadav Shoshani said Monday: "The IDF did not randomly attack an ambulance [in Gaza] on March 23....Several uncoordinated vehicles were identified advancing suspiciously toward IDF troops without headlights or emergency signals. IDF troops then opened fire at the suspected vehicles. Earlier that day, cars that did not belong to terrorists were coordinated and passed safely on the same route." "It was determined that the forces had eliminated a Hamas military operative, Mohammad Amin Ibrahim Shubaki, who took part in the Oct. 7 massacre, along with 8 other terrorists from Hamas and the Islamic Jihad....Terrorists are once again exploiting medical facilities and equipment for their activities." (X) The IDF said Tuesday it had targeted a Hizbullah terrorist in Beirut "who had recently directed Hamas operatives and assisted them in planning a significant and imminent terror attack against Israeli civilians." (Ynet News) Israel will begin building a new security fence along the border with Jordan in June, from the southern edge of the Golan Heights to the Ramon International Airport north of Eilat. A 30-km. portion of the border with Jordan from Eilat to Ramon Airport has already been upgraded. The border's porousness has made it a site of frequent gun- and drug-running. (Times of Israel) Israeli startups raised over $1 billion in 22 deals during March. (Calcalist) Hamas has begun cracking down on Gazans who participated in recent protests against its rule, executing six people and publicly beating others. Among them was Odai al-Rubai, 22, who had spoken out against Hamas on social media. He was abducted by Hamas operatives, tortured for four hours, and then returned to his family as he lay dying. "He was dragged by a rope around his neck, beaten with clubs and metal rods in front of passersby," witnesses said. Hussam al-Majdalawi, who had also spoken against Hamas, was shot in the legs and left wounded in a public square. Hamza al-Masri, a Gaza-based social activist who lost an eye after being tortured by Hamas in the past, said, "There isn't a single journalist in Gaza who can speak about the crimes being committed here. The world has no idea what's happening." Demonstrations subsided Friday, and no new calls for protests have emerged. (Ynet News) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Gaza Those who are rushing to celebrate the anti-Hamas protests in Gaza need to consider that they are most likely a show by Hamas to fool the world into thinking that there is an uprising against the terrorist group. According to some reports, Hamas members have been spotted leading some of Gaza's demonstrations. Hamas is undoubtedly seeking to undermine the legitimacy of Israel's war by sending "innocent" civilians to protest the humanitarian and economic crisis in Gaza. Hamas is hoping the world will see the poor "anti-Hamas" civilians peacefully protesting, then exert pressure on Israel to halt its fight against the terrorists. Notably, most of the protesters appear to be fighting-aged men, reinforcing the belief that they are terrorists who took off their military uniforms and suddenly became "civilians." The protesters, like many residents of Gaza, are, in all probability, just trying to avoid more death and destruction now that they see Israel, fully backed by the Trump administration, resuming its counter-terrorism operations. This is certainly not a change of heart: there has yet to be a single Palestinian criticism of Hamas's Oct. 7 massacre of Israelis. It is highly likely that many of the "anti-Hamas" protesters now are the same people who celebrated the Oct. 7 carnage. Moreover, we did not hear or see one "anti-Hamas" protester hold a banner calling for peace and coexistence with Israel or recognizing Israel's right to exist. The talk about local clans possibly revolting against Hamas is an old fantasy that unfortunately never materialized. The current protests are taking place for one reason only: Hamas is conspicuously losing the war. Israel's military force is working. The protesters are just angry that Israel retaliated so hard. These Palestinian demonstrations are not going to bring down Hamas. It is time to stop projecting Western values and aspirations onto Islamist societies. (Gatestone Institute) Over the last week, crowds of Palestinians, chanting slogans against Hamas, have taken to the streets in a rare public display of dissent. Where are the Palestinian "solidarity" activists now? The same keffiyeh-clad groups that filled the streets of London, Paris, and New York waving PLO flags and denouncing Israel as "genocidal" seem conspicuously quiet when confronted with images of ordinary Palestinian Arabs in Gaza protesting not against Israel, but against Hamas. But what exactly do these demonstrations represent? We must resist the temptation to project our own liberal fantasies onto these images. The idea that Palestinians in Gaza are suddenly casting off the yoke of Hamas in pursuit of democracy and pluralism is dangerously naive. In truth, many of those now seen chanting against Hamas were, until recently, its most ardent supporters. Their opposition today is not to Hamas's goals, but to the consequences of its failed rule and its genocidal attack on Israel. The slogans are an attempt to distance from Hamas as a governing entity, not as a violent movement. It is not the cause that is being rejected, but the cost of continuing to pay the price for Hamas's strategic miscalculations. Idit Bar, one of Israel's leading researchers on the Arab world and Islam, explains that two motivations seem to drive these protests: fear and honor. Fear, first and foremost, of what lies ahead. Many Palestinian Arabs sense the winds shifting. They recognize that Hamas's presence is now a liability. The second driver is the deeply embedded cultural code of honor. Hamas cannot simply surrender or negotiate from weakness. Public pressure gives Hamas a face-saving route back to the table. The latest protests in Gaza do not mark a moral revolution. At best, they are a flicker of pragmatism. The brutality continues, the ideology remains, and the West's willingness to believe in fairy tales prevents it from confronting the hard truth: that not every culture, not every movement, not every identity is morally equal. Until we are ready to face that, we will remain blind to what is actually happening in Gaza. (Spectator-UK) With nothing left to lose, many of us Gazans in the past week have taken what little power we have to protest in the streets against Hamas, the group that has dictated every aspect of our lives for 18 years. Our message is clear: The people of Gaza want to live, so Hamas must go, the hostages taken from Israel must be released, and this war must then finally come to an end. Thousands of Gazans have joined the protests so far, and I believe we represent the sentiment of a large majority of people who have long been too afraid to stand openly against Hamas. Some in the West will doubtless be confused to see Palestinians openly calling Hamas terrorists, after many protesters in Western cities openly supported Hamas. Take it from someone who has lived under Hamas since age 11: To support Hamas is to be for Palestinian death, not Palestinian freedom. Hamas is killing us - through war, poverty and extortion - not liberating us. On top of its oft-employed strategy of using civilians to shield its fighters and launching rockets next to our shelters, Hamas has, throughout this war, systematically stolen and resold humanitarian aid, profiting from our hunger. There is no freedom of thought in Gaza, let alone freedom of speech or belief. Torture and murder are credible threats, and there is literally nowhere to run if you are on a Hamas list. I have the scars to prove it, having been arrested and tortured multiple times. When this war is over, some Palestinians will want to stay in Gaza and rebuild, while others will want the chance to leave. Some will want to continue the struggle against Israel, but many others like myself hope to find a new way forward for us and our families. None of these choices are possible as long as Hamas remains in power. If our movement succeeds, not only will it end this war - it will also prevent the next one. The writer, a Gazan lawyer, was co-organizer of the 2019 "We Want to Live" street demonstrations and a former political prisoner of Hamas. (Washington Post) Turkey Turkish President Erdogan, visiting a mosque to mark the holiday of Eid al-Fitr at the end of Ramadan, said Sunday: "May Allah destroy Zionist Israel." Earlier this month, he labeled Israel a "terror state. Erdogan is currently facing mass opposition protests in Turkey. (Ynet News) Israeli military leaders are concerned about Turkey potentially building up a presence at air bases in Syria, a senior Israel Defense Forces official said. "The establishment of a Turkish Air Force base in Palmyra, Syria, could heighten regional tensions and increase the risk of conflict with Israel. Given Israel's ongoing efforts to prevent hostile military entrenchment in Syria, any significant Turkish military presence, especially in strategic locations like Palmyra, could be perceived as a threat to Israeli security interests." "Recently, Israel has conducted airstrikes against military infrastructure in the region, including the T-4 airbase near Palmyra. While there have been no direct confrontations between Israeli and Turkish forces so far, the situation remains sensitive and requires close monitoring." In addition, the Syrian North Press Agency reported that "Turkish forces have begun constructing a military base inside Menagh Military Airbase in the northern Aleppo countryside in northwestern Syria in recent days. Turkish forces started transporting massive concrete slabs and logistical materials using large transport vehicles into Menagh Military Airbase, approximately six km. south of Azaz, to establish an air defense center." There are additional claims that Turkey is building a base in northwestern Syria near the town of Manbij. Being able to operate from bases in Syria would place Turkish warplanes closer to Israel. If they bring air defenses as well, the combination could create far less permissible skies than the Israel Air Force now enjoys over Syria. (The War Zone) Other Issues The Islamic regime in Iran and its extended militia network is an arch enemy not only to Israel and Arab states, but also to the United States and the West. To confront the Iranian threat, ensure Israel's security and Arab prosperity, and bring long-term stability to the Middle East, a new coordination framework is being fostered between U.S. President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince, Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS). Saudi Arabia played a crucial role in facilitating the negotiation between the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the new Syrian government. SDF leader Mazloum Abdi was flown to Damascus in an American helicopter to sign the agreement. While the Trump-MBS strategy's long-term effectiveness remains to be seen, its immediate impact is clear: Iran is facing unprecedented pressure, Saudi Arabia is securing its regional interests, Israel is given the space and support needed to proceed with its multi-front war, and U.S. influence in the Middle East remains strong. Dr. Dan Diker is President of the Jerusalem Center, where Dalia Ziada is an Egyptian scholar and Senior Fellow. (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) For 17 months, the media breathlessly parroted Hamas casualty figures. Few news outlets ever questioned Hamas's miraculous ability to tally hundreds of deaths within minutes or to instantly determine which were civilians and which were "militants." Even when these reports do acknowledge the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, they usually omit the standard disclaimer that the numbers "could not be independently verified" - a caveat reserved almost exclusively for Israeli statements. Trust the terrorists and doubt the Middle East's only democracy. Then come the instant legal verdicts. Politicians and pundits rush to declare Israel's actions illegal, dispensing with the formality of waiting for the inevitable rubber-stamp ruling from a politicized international court. The belief that Hamas would ever relinquish all its hostages without pressure was always just wishful thinking. Hostages are the Gaza terrorists' last remaining assets. They will hold on to at least some unless forced otherwise. The biggest untruth of all is the delusion that diplomacy could actually resolve this conflict. Evil exists on a spectrum. The IRA, for all its bloodshed, never committed the barbarism Hamas unleashed on Oct. 7 or sought the destruction of Britain. It demanded territorial change, which made a political solution possible. Hamas, by contrast, is explicit in its genocidal intentions. So what's the diplomatic solution - meet them halfway? Given the UK's and Europe's newfound realism toward Russia, even with thousands of miles (and, in Britain's case, a waterway) between them and Russia, the governments of the UK and Europe hawkishly dismiss meek diplomacy in favor of war and military deterrence. These same governments, though, insist Israel abandon its military advantage against mortal threats right at its borders. They insist that for the Jewish state, war - let alone victory - is not the answer. Instead, Israel must be dragged back from the brink of victory and condemned to the purgatory of endless "diplomacy" and conflict. Israelis are united in understanding that Hamas must be eliminated. (Jewish Chronicle-UK) Israel is a country of just 9 million people, America has 333 million. The death toll in Israel from Hamas terrorists who invaded from Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023, was the equivalent of 44,400 Americans killed by terrorism - more than a dozen 9/11s. It would be the equivalent of 8,400 British people being slaughtered and another 1,750 taken hostage. The victims were mainly civilians. At the Nova dance party, 364 young people were slaughtered as they hid or tried to flee. Many of them called their families - asking for help, asking for advice, or just telling their parents that they loved them - before they were mercilessly cut down. Many of the terrorists recorded what was happening on their cameras and mobile phones, filming the atrocities as they were carrying them out and then broadcasting their acts of violence with pride. These acts included burning people alive and raping men and women - sometimes before killing them, sometimes after. What the people of Israel were thrown into on Oct. 7 spells out the divide between democracies and death cults. The right of Israel to fight and win the war in Gaza is vital not just for the sake of that country, but so Britain, America and every other Western country will be able to fight such a war if or when the time comes. The terrorists of Oct. 7 did what they did with relish. Not just the endless shouting of their war cries. Or the visible glee you could see in their faces and hear in their voices. It was the fact that all of this gave them such intense joy. And that they were proud of their actions. Even the Nazis, among the most evil people in human history, sought to cover over their crimes. What is the world to do against such cults of death, cults that threaten the future of civilization? Many people in the West today are not comfortable talking in terms like good or evil. But evil does exist as a force in the world. Indeed, it is the only explanation for why certain people do certain things. In the West, we are prone to trotting out the same old banalities - that people around the world are the same everywhere and essentially want the same things. Yet some people do not. How can anyone hope to overcome a people who welcome death, who glory in death, who worship death? This year I finally saw an answer. I went into Gaza with the Israel Defense Forces and saw up close its campaign to defeat Hamas. The Israeli soldiers did it not because they loved death but because they love life. They fought for the survival of their families, their nation, and their people. (Daily Mail-UK) While the Arabs have long mischaracterized the Israeli victory in 1948 as a British-Jewish collaboration, nothing could be further from the truth. After the Second World War, the Jews fought a war of national liberation against Britain, the ruling colonial power. In the fighting between Arabs and Jews in 1948, Britain did not support the Jews. Britain was actually involved in arming the Arab forces and even fighting alongside them in an attempt to limit the Zionist victory. In 1945, Britain brokered the founding of the Arab League, persuading Egypt to join Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Transjordan and Yemen in a new pan-Arab front. This would be the force - in the shape of the Arab Liberation Army - that attacked the newly founded State of Israel in 1948. The Jordanian Arab Legion, an army built up as a local militia of the British under Lt.-Gen. John Bagot Glubb, and part of the Arab Liberation Army, crossed over into Palestine to "occupy that part of Palestine awarded to the Arabs." Britain's ambassador to Jordan, Alec Kirkbride, said that Jordan annexing Nablus and Hebron "was the logical solution." The Arab Legion planned to attack the Jews once the British had left. Britain resupplied the Arab Legion's munitions just before the attack on the Jews, with eight 25-pounder guns arriving in February 1948, each battery commanded by a British officer. Britain also armed the Egyptian and Iraqi forces and used British facilities to refuel Egyptian aircraft. On May 18, Glubb's Arab Legion entered Jerusalem. By May 28, the Jews had surrendered their foothold in the Old City. The Arab Legion was undone when the British government, under pressure from the UN and the U.S., ordered its British officers to step down. Anti-Israel activists may today try to present Israel as a "settler-colonial state." But its founding, forged in the heat of anti-colonial struggle, shows it was anything but. (Spiked-UK) Observations: Turkey's Internal Crisis and Strategic Expansion - Oded Ailam (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)
The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center. |
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